Stochastic model construction of natural hazards given experimental measures
Abstract
This paper addresses the construction of probabilistic models for time or space dependent natural hazards. The proposed method uses Karhunen-Loève expansion in order to construct an empirical model matching the non-stationarity and the randomness of natural phenomena such as earthquakes or other complex environmental processes. The terms of the Karhunen-Loève expansion are identified directly from measured data. The approach is illustrated and its performance assessed through two academic examples. It is then applied to seismic ground motion modelling using recorded data.
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